Raptors vs Mavericks Preview: Toronto Favored Over Winless Dallas

The Toronto Raptors travel to Dallas on Sunday night for what could be their best opportunity yet to establish early-season momentum against a struggling Mavericks squad that has yet to find its footing in the 2025-26 campaign. With tip-off scheduled for 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center, oddsmakers have installed Toronto as slight favorites despite playing on the road.

Early Season Contrasts Define Sunday's Matchup

The narrative heading into this contest couldn't be more different for these two organizations. Toronto enters with a 1-1 record after splitting their opening games, including an impressive 20-point road victory over Atlanta before falling to Milwaukee 122-116 on Friday. Meanwhile, Dallas finds itself in unfamiliar territory at 0-2, having dropped contests to both San Antonio and Washington to open their season.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Raptors opened as 1.5-point underdogs but have since moved to being slight favorites in some markets, with the total set at 231.5 points. The shifting line reflects growing confidence in Toronto's ability to exploit Dallas's early-season vulnerabilities.

Toronto's Offensive Firepower Leading the Way

The Raptors have been one of the league's most productive offensive teams through their first two games, averaging an impressive 127.0 points per game while shooting 53.3% from the field. That offensive efficiency ranks them seventh in the NBA, a remarkable achievement for a team many expected to struggle after roster changes.

RJ Barrett has emerged as Toronto's primary offensive weapon, averaging 22.5 points through two games while shooting an efficient 3-for-4 from the field in recent action. Power forward Brandon Ingram has matched that scoring output with his own 22.5 points per game, adding 7.5 rebounds to provide a balanced inside-outside threat that Dallas has struggled to contain against other opponents.

Perhaps most impressive has been the play of Scottie Barnes, who is quietly establishing himself as a legitimate star. The young forward is contributing 19.5 points and 6.0 assists per game, showcasing the versatile skill set that made him a top draft pick. Point guard Immanuel Quickley has been the engine that makes Toronto's offense run, averaging 16.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 8.0 assists while playing 33.0 minutes per game.

Quickley Presents Favorable Prop Betting Opportunity

For bettors looking beyond the spread, Quickley's points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) total represents compelling value at 25.5. The Kentucky product has already posted 25 and 34 PRA in his two games this season, and faces a Dallas defense that ranks 19th in defensive rating. As Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey notes, "Quickley has at least 12 shot attempts in each game this season and has already taken 14 free throws, including 10 in his last game."

Dallas Struggling Without Kyrie Irving

The Mavericks' early-season woes can be traced directly to the absence of Kyrie Irving, who is sidelined indefinitely with a torn ACL suffered late last season. Without their dynamic guard, Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA with just 99.5 points per game while shooting a dismal 40.4% from the field.

The burden has fallen heavily on Anthony Davis, who signed with Dallas in the offseason and is doing his best to carry the load with 24.5 points and 13.0 rebounds per game. However, Davis is reportedly not at 100% conditioning-wise, which could limit his effectiveness in what promises to be an up-tempo contest against Toronto.

First overall pick Cooper Flagg has shown flashes of brilliance but faces an impossibly steep learning curve as the de facto starting point guard at just 18 years old. After struggling in his NBA debut against San Antonio, Flagg bounced back with 18 points against Washington, but averaging 14.0 points per game while running an NBA offense is a monumental ask for any rookie, let alone one thrust into this role out of necessity.

Injury Report Compounds Dallas's Challenges

Beyond Irving's absence, the Mavericks are dealing with additional injury concerns. Point guard Dante Exum and shooting guard Brandon Williams are both listed as out, while center Daniel Gafford's status remains questionable. This depleted roster has forced coach Jason Kidd to rely on veterans like D'Angelo Russell and P.J. Washington to provide stability, but the chemistry remains a work in progress.

Betting Analysis and Expert Predictions

The consensus among handicappers favors Toronto to cover the spread in this matchup. Multiple sources, including analysis from Stat Salt and Picks and Parlays, recommend backing the Raptors based on their superior depth, offensive efficiency, and Dallas's glaring weaknesses.

"Dallas doesn't have a point guard right now, and it's attempting to mold rookie Cooper Flagg into that spot at the moment," explains Sports Illustrated's analysis. "I'm not sold on Dallas as a favorite in this game, especially since it has the worst net rating in the league through two games."

The Mavericks' struggles extend beyond just offense. They've allowed 121.0 points per game defensively, and opponents are shooting 51.4% from the field and 41.1% from three-point range against them. Those numbers spell trouble against a Raptors team that has multiple players capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.

Over/Under Consideration

While the spread appears to favor Toronto, the total presents an intriguing proposition. Toronto ranks third in the league with a 108.75 pace, while Dallas checks in at 13th with a 104.5 pace. Both teams have been generous at the free-throw line, with the Raptors allowing 31.0 attempts per game and Dallas surrendering 28.5.

The combination of Toronto's offensive firepower and both teams' defensive struggles suggests the over on 231.5 points carries value, despite Dallas's scoring woes to date.

Key Matchups to Watch

The battle between Scottie Barnes and Anthony Davis will likely determine Toronto's success. Barnes has the defensive versatility to make life difficult for Davis, while his offensive game continues to expand. If Barnes can force Davis into uncomfortable situations while contributing on both ends, the Raptors should control the game.

Another critical factor will be how Toronto's backcourt of Quickley and Barrett attacks Cooper Flagg. The rookie showed improvement in his second game, but veteran guards should be able to exploit his inexperience running an NBA offense. Toronto's ability to force turnovers and convert them into transition opportunities could be the difference in what figures to be a close contest.

Historical Context and Season Outlook

This marks the first meeting between these teams this season, with their only other scheduled matchup not occurring until March 8. That gap makes Sunday's game even more significant as both teams look to establish early-season identity.

For Toronto, a road win in Dallas would move them to 2-1 and validate their status as a potential playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have shown they can compete with quality opponents, and adding another road victory would build crucial confidence.

Dallas, conversely, faces mounting pressure to avoid an 0-3 start that would put them in a deep hole before Irving even returns. The Western Conference remains brutally competitive, and every early-season loss makes the path to playoff positioning that much steeper.

Final Verdict

All indicators point toward Toronto having a significant edge in this matchup. The Raptors boast superior depth, better offensive efficiency, fewer injury concerns, and the experience advantage of having their roster intact. Dallas is essentially asking an 18-year-old rookie and a not-fully-conditioned Anthony Davis to overcome a 20-point scoring deficit compared to their opponents.

While home court provides some advantage, the Mavericks have yet to demonstrate they can execute consistently on either end of the floor. Toronto should control tempo, win the rebounding battle, and have too many scoring options for Dallas's depleted roster to contain.

Expect the Raptors to improve to 2-1 with a convincing road victory, leaving Dallas searching for answers as they fall to 0-3. Sunday night's contest in Dallas may not feature playoff implications in October, but it represents a crossroads for two franchises heading in decidedly different directions to start the season.