Knicks vs Heat Preview: Brunson's Hot Hand Keys Sunday Showdown

The New York Knicks and Miami Heat renew their Eastern Conference rivalry Sunday evening at the Kaseya Center, with both teams looking to build momentum early in the 2025-26 NBA season. The Knicks enter riding high at 2-0, while the Heat sit at 1-1 after bouncing back from their season-opening loss.

Game Details and Broadcast Information

Sunday's matchup tips off at 6:00 PM ET in Miami, with the game available on FanDuel Sports Network and MSG. The Knicks are listed as 2.5-point favorites, with the total set at 228.5 points according to multiple sportsbooks.

This contest marks New York's first road game of the season after opening with impressive home victories over Cleveland and Boston. The Knicks dismantled the Celtics 105-95 on Friday night, controlling the glass with a 53-37 rebounding advantage while holding Boston to just 95 points.

Jalen Brunson's Transformed Three-Point Game

The most intriguing storyline heading into Sunday's game centers on Jalen Brunson's dramatically increased three-point volume under new head coach Mike Brown. According to multiple reports, Brown has implemented specific offensive sets designed to create more open looks for Brunson beyond the arc.

The results have been striking. Brunson is attempting eight or more three-pointers per game—a significant increase from previous seasons—while converting at a respectable 37.5% clip. Against the Celtics, he poured in 31 points on 10-of-19 shooting, adding five assists while demonstrating the aggressive mentality Brown wants from his primary ball-handler.

"Brown has occasionally shifted Brunson out of his primary facilitator role, running actions designed to create more three-point opportunities for him," notes one betting analyst. This tactical adjustment could prove particularly effective against Miami's defense, which has struggled with turnovers early this season.

Injury Report: Who's In, Who's Out

Both teams enter Sunday's contest with significant injury concerns that could impact the outcome.

Knicks Injury Updates

New York has four players listed on their injury report, with Mitchell Robinson already ruled out due to ankle injury management. The more pressing concerns surround Karl-Anthony Towns (quad strain) and Miles McBride (personal reasons), both listed as questionable.

The good news for Knicks fans: Josh Hart appears likely to make his season debut after being listed as probable despite a lingering back injury. Hart's presence would provide valuable depth and defensive versatility. Additionally, OG Anunoby has been removed from the injury report entirely and will be available.

Remarkably, Towns revealed after the season opener that he's playing through a Grade 2 quad strain—a testament to his commitment but also a concern for his long-term availability.

Heat Injury Situation

Miami will definitely be without Tyler Herro (ankle surgery recovery), Kasparas Jakucionis (groin), and Terry Rozier (not with team). However, Kel'el Ware will be available after dealing with a lingering ankle issue.

Herro's absence is particularly significant, as the Heat's offensive firepower takes a notable hit without their leading scorer from recent seasons.

Matchup Analysis: Pace and Efficiency

Miami's up-tempo style has been on full display early this season. The Heat are averaging 133.5 points per game through two contests, pushing the pace at every opportunity. This fast-paced approach has led to both offensive opportunities and defensive vulnerabilities—Miami is currently allowing a league-worst 19.5 turnovers per game.

For New York, Brown's system emphasizes ball movement and three-point shooting while maintaining defensive integrity. The Knicks rank third in defensive rating through two games and held Boston to just 95 points on Friday.

The contrasting styles set up an intriguing tactical battle. Can Miami's speed overwhelm New York's half-court structure? Or will the Knicks' defensive discipline force the Heat into costly mistakes?

Key Betting Angles and Trends

Several betting trends favor specific outcomes in this matchup. The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams, suggesting Sunday's 228.5-point total could be vulnerable to going over, especially given Miami's pace.

New York has won and covered in two of their last three head-to-head matchups with Miami, though last season's series went 3-0 to the Knicks according to the NBA box score data. The Knicks finished last season 7-3 in their final 10 road games, demonstrating their ability to win away from Madison Square Garden.

From a prop betting perspective, Norman Powell's scoring prop deserves attention. Despite averaging solid numbers, Powell has failed to clear his scoring total in three of his last five games. New York's perimeter defense, which has excelled at limiting opposing guards, could continue that trend.

Expert Predictions and Best Bets

Multiple betting analysts are targeting Brunson's three-point prop for Sunday's game. At over 2.5 made threes (+130 at some books), Brunson's increased volume under Brown's system presents value, particularly against a Miami team averaging nearly 20 turnovers per game.

"Those extra possessions, along with Brown's schemes, should generate even more looks for Brunson," one expert notes, "and I expect him to hit at least three long balls for the second time in three games."

The spread also attracts attention. At Knicks -2.5, New York's defensive superiority and offensive balance make them an appealing favorite, especially with Hart potentially returning to provide additional two-way contributions.

X-Factors and Under-the-Radar Storylines

Beyond the headline narratives, several factors could swing Sunday's outcome:

• Karl-Anthony Towns' Passing: Towns has cleared his assist total in four of his last five games, and his high-post passing could unlock New York's offense against Miami's aggressive defense.
• Bam Adebayo's Efficiency: After scoring 24 points in Friday's win over Memphis, Adebayo enters as Miami's offensive focal point with Herro sidelined.
• Bench Production: Miami got 17 points from Jaime Jaquez Jr. in their last game, while New York needs contributions from players like Jordan Clarkson to maintain their depth advantage.

Final Outlook

This rivalry game offers plenty of intrigue beyond the final score. For the Knicks, it's an opportunity to prove their hot start is legitimate while navigating their first true road test. For Miami, it's a chance to show they can compete with Eastern Conference contenders despite roster limitations.

The tactical chess match between Brown's structured approach and Miami's free-flowing offense should provide compelling basketball. With Brunson's improved three-point shooting, Towns' all-around excellence, and potentially Hart's return, the Knicks appear positioned to start the season 3-0.

However, Miami's home-court advantage, up-tempo style, and Adebayo's interior dominance keep this from being a sure thing. Expect a competitive game that could come down to execution in the final minutes—exactly what you'd expect from two teams with playoff aspirations and a history of physical, emotional contests.

As tip-off approaches, all eyes will be on whether Brunson continues his hot shooting, if Towns can play effectively through his quad injury, and whether Miami's pace can overwhelm New York's structured defense. The answers will go a long way toward defining the early-season trajectory for both franchises.