Thunder vs Pacers Preview: Injuries, Odds & NBA Picks for Oct 23

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet Thursday night in what promises to be a fascinating rematch of last season's NBA Finals. With tip-off set for 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, both teams are navigating significant injury concerns that could reshape the game's dynamics.

Thunder Dealing With Extensive Injury List

Oklahoma City enters this Finals rematch facing a roster challenge that would test any defending champion. According to the NBA's official injury report, the Thunder will be without several key contributors including Jalen Williams (right wrist surgery), Alex Caruso (concussion protocol), Isaiah Joe (knee contusion), and Nikola Topic (testicular surgery).

The most recent addition to the injury list is Cason Wallace, who sustained a left knee sprain during Tuesday's double-overtime season opener against Houston. Despite logging 42 minutes and contributing 14 points, seven rebounds, five assists and four steals, Wallace is now questionable for Thursday's contest. Luguentz Dort is also dealing with a left ankle sprain but appears likely to play after being upgraded to available status.

"In a position we're in right now, you've got to look forward to the challenges that are staring us right in the face," Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said. "I've talked to our team a lot about grit, and where grit got us last year and to remind those guys that were here last year and to let our new guys know that grit is a lot of what this is going to be about."

Pacers Missing Star Guard Tyrese Haliburton

The Pacers face their own roster challenges, most notably the season-long absence of All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. The injury has forced Indiana to reconfigure its offensive approach, with increased responsibilities falling on players like Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Pascal Siakam, and Aaron Nesmith.

Indiana will also be without T.J. McConnell (hamstring strain) and Quenton Jackson (right hamstring) for Thursday's game. However, Jarace Walker (back soreness) and Johnny Furphy (left ankle sprain) are expected to be available after missing the final preseason contest.

Betting Lines and Predictions

Despite the injury concerns, Oklahoma City opens as 7.5-point favorites according to major sportsbooks. The total is set at 229-231.5 points depending on the book, with the Thunder's moneyline ranging from -270 to -305.

ProphetX's predictive model projects Oklahoma City to cover the spread at -8 with -106 odds, while forecasting the game to go over 227.5 points. The model gives the Thunder an 88% win probability in this matchup.

Key Player Props to Watch

Several player props are generating significant betting interest for Thursday's game. Bennedict Mathurin's points total is set at 18.5 with many experts projecting him to exceed that number given his expanded role in Haliburton's absence. During last season, Mathurin averaged approximately 0.4 points per minute when Haliburton was off the floor.

For Oklahoma City, Cason Wallace's combined points, rebounds, and assists total sits at 15.5. If he plays through his knee injury, Wallace could easily surpass this mark given his 23 combined stat total in the season opener despite the Thunder having additional healthy guards available.

Historical Context and Head-to-Head Trends

The last time these teams met was June 22, 2025, in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, when Oklahoma City secured a 103-91 victory to claim the championship. The Thunder have won six of the last ten meetings between these teams and are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine matchups with Indiana.

Interestingly, the under has hit in six of Oklahoma City's last nine games overall, and in four of their last five games against the Pacers. However, Indiana has been profitable as a home underdog, going 7-3 straight up in their last ten home games against Oklahoma City.

Tactical Adjustments to Expect

With Wallace questionable and several key rotation players sidelined, Thunder coach Mark Daigneault may need to rely more heavily on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's playmaking. The reigning MVP struggled early in Tuesday's season opener before surging late, scoring 12 points in the fourth quarter and another 12 across two overtime periods.

"He's someone we never even check in on," said Thunder center Chet Holmgren about Gilgeous-Alexander. "'Like yo, everything OK? Is there something going on?' He's good. When he has to look to score and make plays, he's gonna do it."

For Indiana, the absence of Haliburton forces them to play more through Mathurin and Siakam. According to betting experts, Mathurin should enter this season with an aggressive mindset as he approaches free agency and will be asked to play more minutes and take more shots.

Game Environment and Atmosphere

This Finals rematch carries additional weight as both teams' season openers. While the stakes are considerably lower than last June's championship-deciding Game 7, there's still carry-over intensity from that seven-game series. Indiana will be looking to prove they can compete with the defending champions even without their best player, while Oklahoma City seeks to establish early dominance despite their depleted roster.

The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN, adding to the spotlight on this marquee matchup. Officials JB DeRosa, Josh Tiven, and Brandon Schwab will work the game, with DeRosa serving as the crew chief.

Expert Picks and Analysis

Despite Oklahoma City's injury concerns, most expert handicappers are backing the Thunder to cover the spread. The defending champions' depth and defensive intensity should be enough to overcome Indiana's home-court advantage, particularly with the Pacers also dealing with significant absences.

Several betting experts are focusing on player props rather than the spread, targeting Mathurin's scoring, Wallace's combined stats (if he plays), and various assists and rebounds markets that may be inflated due to rotation changes.

The Action Network's consensus leans toward Oklahoma City covering, with 56% of the betting public backing the Thunder against the spread and 44% taking the Pacers plus the points.

Final Thoughts

Thursday night's Thunder-Pacers matchup represents one of the most intriguing opening week games on the NBA schedule. While both teams are dealing with significant injuries, the chess match between coaches and the adjustments made by remaining healthy players could produce an entertaining contest that exceeds the modest 229-point total.

Oklahoma City's championship pedigree and superior depth should prevail, but Indiana's home-court advantage and motivation to prove themselves against the team that eliminated them last season could keep this game closer than the 7.5-point spread suggests. Regardless of the outcome, this Finals rematch will provide valuable insight into how both teams navigate adversity early in the 2025-26 season.