Thunder vs Pacers: Injury Updates and Betting Insights for NBA Finals Rematch

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet Thursday night at 7:30 PM ET in a highly anticipated NBA Finals rematch, but the storylines have shifted dramatically from their seven-game championship series just months ago. Both teams enter this contest dealing with significant injury concerns that will reshape the dynamics of this marquee matchup.

Thunder Navigate Injury-Riddled Roster

Oklahoma City's depth will be tested severely as they travel to Indianapolis without several key contributors. According to the NBA's official injury report, the Thunder will be missing Alex Caruso (concussion protocol), Jalen Williams (right wrist surgery recovery), Isaiah Joe (knee contusion), and Nikola Topic (testicular surgery).

The most recent development came just hours before tipoff when Cason Wallace was added to the injury report with a left knee sprain sustained during Tuesday's double-overtime victory over Houston. Wallace had played an impressive 42 minutes in that contest, contributing 14 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and four steals while shooting 50 percent from the field.

However, there's positive news regarding Luguentz Dort, who was initially listed as questionable with a left ankle sprain. The NBA injury report was updated to confirm Dort's availability for Thursday's game, providing Oklahoma City with one of their best defenders against Indiana's dynamic offensive attack.

Wallace's Importance Cannot Be Overstated

The potential absence of Wallace represents a significant challenge for Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault. The 21-year-old guard started Tuesday's season opener and has emerged as a crucial two-way player in his third NBA season. His defensive intensity and improved offensive efficiency make him nearly irreplaceable in Oklahoma City's rotation.

With Wallace now questionable alongside the already-sidelined rotation players, the Thunder may need to rely heavily on their starting core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Aaron Wiggins and Ajay Mitchell are expected to see increased minutes, though the team will have just 11 available players if Wallace cannot suit up.

Pacers Face Season-Long Challenge Without Haliburton

Indiana's injury situation presents an even more daunting long-term challenge. Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton will miss the entire 2025-26 season, fundamentally altering the Pacers' offensive identity. The team has also lost veteran center Myles Turner to free agency, forcing significant adjustments to their roster construction.

For Thursday's game specifically, Indiana will be without T.J. McConnell (hamstring strain) and Quenton Jackson (hamstring), further depleting their backcourt depth. However, Jarace Walker (back soreness) and Johnny Furphy (left ankle sprain) will both be available after missing the final preseason game.

New Core Takes Center Stage

Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle has emphasized the importance of "grit" as his rebuilt roster navigates this challenging season. The team's new core features Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Pascal Siakam, and Aaron Nesmith—four players who excelled together during the preseason and now must carry the load in meaningful games.

"In a position we're in right now, you've got to look forward to the challenges that are staring us right in the face," Carlisle told reporters. "I've talked to our team a lot about grit, and where grit got us last year and to remind those guys that were here last year and to let our new guys know that grit is a lot of what this is going to be about."

Nembhard acknowledged the mental shift required after last season's Finals disappointment. "I think it's past at this point," he said regarding moving on from the championship loss. "In a position we're in right now, you've got to look forward to the challenges that are staring us right in the face."

Betting Lines and Expert Predictions

According to odds from multiple sportsbooks, the Thunder opened as 7.5-point favorites with a total set at 225.5 points. Those numbers have shifted slightly across different platforms, with some books showing Oklahoma City as high as -8 and totals ranging between 227.5 and 231.5 points.

Expert handicappers are targeting several player prop bets for this matchup. Bennedict Mathurin's points total has drawn significant attention, with the over 18.5 points at -110 considered a strong play given his increased usage without Haliburton. Mathurin averaged approximately 0.4 points per minute with Haliburton off the floor last season, projecting to roughly 19.5 points in a 32-minute workload.

For Oklahoma City, Cason Wallace's points, rebounds, and assists total is set at 15.5 (over -120), reflecting his expanded role in the absence of multiple rotation players. Wallace logged more than 31 minutes in regulation during the season opener with 23 combined PRA, and Caruso's absence creates even more opportunity.

Historical Context Favors Thunder

Recent history heavily favors Oklahoma City in this matchup. The Thunder have won six of the last ten meetings, including four consecutive victories during last season's Finals. However, Indiana holds a 7-3 straight-up record in their last ten home games against Oklahoma City, suggesting Gainbridge Fieldhouse provides a significant advantage.

Betting trends show the total has gone UNDER in six of Oklahoma City's last nine games overall and five of their last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents. For Indiana, the total has gone UNDER in four of their last five games and five of their last seven contests against Western Conference teams.

Key Matchups to Watch

Despite the depleted rosters, several intriguing individual matchups will determine the outcome. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last season's MVP, struggled for much of Tuesday's opener before erupting for 24 points across the fourth quarter and two overtime periods. His ability to control pace against Indiana's transition-oriented attack will be crucial.

On the Indiana side, Mathurin enters the season with heightened motivation as a pending free agent. His aggressive mindset and increased shot volume could prove problematic for an Oklahoma City defense that will be scrambling to cover multiple positions with their limited personnel.

The Thunder's Chet Holmgren praised Gilgeous-Alexander's resilience after Tuesday's game, noting, "He's someone we never even check in on. 'Like yo, everything OK? Is there something going on?' He's good. When he has to look to score and make plays, he's gonna do it."

What This Means for the Season Ahead

While Thursday's game carries the emotional weight of a Finals rematch, both teams face dramatically different circumstances than their June meeting. Oklahoma City's depth will be tested throughout the early season as several key players work their way back to full health. The Thunder's ability to maintain their defensive intensity and offensive efficiency with a shortened rotation will be a major storyline moving forward.

For Indiana, this game represents the first step in what will be a long journey of identity formation. Without Haliburton's playmaking and Turner's rim protection, the Pacers must discover new offensive rhythms and defensive schemes. Nembhard's development as a primary ball-handler and Mathurin's efficiency as a volume scorer will determine whether Indiana can remain competitive in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

As Rick Carlisle emphasized, the path forward requires embracing the challenge rather than dwelling on what's been lost. If Thursday's game provides any indication of how these teams will navigate their respective obstacles, it should offer valuable insights into their championship aspirations for the remainder of the season.