Bo Nix's Tipped Passes: Payton Explains the Truth Behind Broncos QB's Struggles

As the Denver Broncos sit at 6-2 and atop the AFC West following their thrilling 44-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, one persistent issue continues to plague rookie quarterback Bo Nix: an unusually high number of tipped passes at the line of scrimmage. Head coach Sean Payton recently addressed this concern, providing insight into what's causing these deflections and whether they're truly a problem worth worrying about.

The Tipped Pass Problem: More Than Just Bad Luck

During the Broncos' Week 7 comeback victory against the New York Giants, Nix faced constant pressure from a Giants defense that repeatedly got hands on his passes at the line of scrimmage. Combined with five dropped passes by receivers, the first three quarters proved frustrating for Denver's offense before they exploded for a historic 33 points in the fourth quarter.

The issue of tipped passes has been a recurring theme throughout Nix's season. When asked about it, Payton offered a measured response that deflected concerns about his quarterback's throwing mechanics. "Sometimes with a certain rush, teams are pretty good at deciding, 'If we're not getting home and it's coming out...' But I think nothing that I would address, meaning his motion," Payton explained. "They probably all were happening... A lot of it's probably route-driven too. Nothing remarkable relative to that standing out as one of the things that we want to clean up."

It's Not the Throwing Motion, Payton Insists

Payton's comments are significant because they directly address speculation about whether Nix's mechanics might be contributing to the problem. The coach made it clear that he doesn't see the quarterback's throwing motion as the culprit. Instead, he pointed to defensive game planning and route timing as more likely factors.

When defenses realize they can't get consistent pressure on the quarterback, they often adjust their approach. Rather than committing fully to rushing the passer, defensive linemen will keep their hands up in passing lanes, looking to bat down balls. This tactical shift appears to be what Nix is encountering regularly.

The Numbers Tell a Mixed Story

Despite these mechanical challenges, Nix's overall performance this season has been impressive for a rookie. Through eight games, he's completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,556 yards with 11 touchdowns against just four interceptions. That touchdown-to-interception ratio demonstrates solid decision-making, even if the execution hasn't always been perfect.

His yardage total ranks 11th in the NFL—respectable, but not quite the elite production Payton himself predicted when he suggested Nix would be among the top "four or five" quarterbacks. The rookie's seven touchdown passes tie him for seventh among NFL quarterbacks, placing him in the neighborhood of upper-echelon signal-callers.

Efficiency Metrics Reveal Room for Growth

The real concern for Denver's offense isn't necessarily the tipped passes themselves, but rather the overall efficiency metrics that continue to lag. The Broncos rank just 23rd in third-down conversion rate at 35.8%—a figure that must improve if Denver wants to be considered a legitimate playoff threat.

Interestingly, Nix has been excellent in the red zone, where the Broncos rank sixth in the league by scoring touchdowns on 68.2% of their trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line. This suggests that when the field compresses and passing windows become tighter, Nix actually performs better—which seems counterintuitive to the tipped pass narrative.

A Historical Perspective: Nix's Week 7 Heroics

The magnitude of what Nix accomplished against the Giants cannot be overstated. His four-touchdown performance in the fourth quarter alone—two passing and two rushing—made him the first NFL quarterback ever to account for four touchdowns in that manner in a single quarter. Even cornerback Pat Surtain II admitted he had "lost hope" before the comeback materialized.

"I don't even know how to score 33 points in a quarter," Nix said after the game. "That's kind of insane, but it's just whatever we had to get done and we did it."

The rookie's ability to lead such a dramatic turnaround speaks volumes about his mental toughness and leadership qualities—traits that may prove more valuable in the long run than any mechanical adjustments to his throwing motion.

The Bigger Picture: A Work in Progress

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of Denver's 6-2 start is that they haven't yet played their best football. As Nix himself acknowledged, "We've looked in the mirror and seen all the different ways that we've hurt ourselves. We know we have a penalty problem. We know we have an execution problem at times."

The team's ability to win games while still committing penalties, dealing with dropped passes, and navigating the occasional tipped pass suggests there's significant upside remaining. If Denver can clean up these correctable issues—and if Nix continues developing his chemistry with receivers—this offense could become genuinely dangerous down the stretch.

Betting Markets Take Notice

Interestingly, the sports betting world has taken note of some of Nix's struggles. Action Network expert Gilles Gallant recently listed Nix among his interception prop picks for Week 8, citing the quarterback's sporadic play and increased turnover-worthy-play rate when facing pressure. Against a Cowboys defense that leads the NFL in pressure rate per dropback at 33%, the betting markets saw opportunity.

However, Nix responded emphatically, throwing four touchdown passes in Denver's 44-24 demolition of Dallas, including two scores to college teammate Troy Franklin. The performance served as a reminder that rookies can be inconsistent, but they can also deliver elite performances when it matters most.

Looking Ahead: The Path Forward

As Denver prepares for the second half of the season, the tipped pass issue will likely persist to some degree. But based on Payton's comments and the team's overall trajectory, it doesn't appear to be a crisis requiring dramatic intervention. Instead, it's one of many details that need refinement as Nix continues his rookie development.

The Broncos would rather have tipped passes than sacks—a trade-off that reflects Nix's ability to get the ball out quickly. If the coaching staff can identify route combinations that give Nix clearer throwing lanes, and if the offensive line can maintain their protection schemes, these deflections should naturally decrease as the season progresses.

Conclusion: Trust the Process

At 6-2 and leading the AFC West, the Broncos have exceeded most preseason expectations. Bo Nix, despite the tipped passes and occasional growing pains, has shown the poise and playmaking ability of a quarterback who could develop into something special. Sean Payton's confidence in his rookie signal-caller appears well-founded, even if the journey includes some bumps along the way.

The tipped passes are real, and they're worth monitoring. But they're not a fundamental flaw in Nix's game—just another challenge for a rookie quarterback navigating the complexities of NFL defenses. As Denver continues refining its offense and Nix gains more experience, these deflections should become less frequent. For now, Broncos fans can take comfort in knowing their coach has identified the issue, understands its causes, and doesn't view it as a major obstacle to their quarterback's development.